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The BRI is “a good deal more fragmented and chaotic than much Western media coverage makes out,” says Sebastien Strangio, author of a new book “In the Dragon’s Shadow”, which traces the extension of Chinese power into southeast Asia. Such recompense could come through measures back home in China, such as direct money transfers or preferential project stakes, he adds. It’s “very probable” that the Chinese government will ultimately have its commercial lenders publicly write off some debts or permit temporary forbearance, but then privately reimburse them, Collins says.But Beijing is unlikely to allow this because Zambia would see such a stance as “a hostile act that destroyed whatever strategic position China might have gained through the loans.” “Chinese lenders will ultimately acquiesce to Beijing’s demands but in the meantime will press their case as far as they think politically advisable in order to try and at least minimize the haircut that may be coming,” says Collins, a fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.Ĭhinese commercial lenders see a wealth of assets such as copper output which could be used to satisfy obligations, Collins says.“Such influence is, at best, temporarily rented and financial outlays that opened doors when times were good suddenly become liabilities when a macro shock leaves debtors unable to pay.” Loan diplomacy “often fails to purchase lasting strategic influence,” he says.The present situation illustrates some limits to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, says Gabriel Collins, co-founder of the China SignPost research group in the US. Zambia also has yet to devise a plan for $200 million of arrears to Beijing, he adds.
THE CHINESE CHEQUEBOOK FULL
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“Should Zambia fail to reach an agreement with its commercial creditors.
THE CHINESE CHEQUEBOOK PLUS
The only foreign-currency denominated debt that Zambia will continue to pay is from multilateral agencies, plus debt for a few priority projects, the statement adds.